Thursday, April 12, 2012

Recent spate of quakes...

It's been all over the news these past 24 hours, firstly Indonesia (8.7) and now Mexico (7.0). Yes, our long foe the "strong earthquake" has been rattling people again.

Just minutes ago, there was yet another small-ish tremor here in Christchurch (and apparently, there have been some small ones overnight too), to add to a sequence of small shakes we've started having again over the past month, after having relative silence for a few months.

Now, after the pre-Christmas quakes last December, I figured from a very approximate pattern of significant quakes that there were usually 2, 4, or 6 months between these events, and somehow after December, the most likely gap would have lead to sometime during April. In recent months, the notion of a 5.3 to 6.3 earthquake (or pair of quakes) on 17 April 2012 came to mind as the likely date of said event (interestingly, I found that this happens to be the date for a "shakeout" drill in Utah). I'd love to be proven wrong on this, but if not, it would be just by sheer luck.

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